Sunday, August 05, 2007

The Black Swan
Sunday, August 5th, 2007
Taleb’s new book “The Black Swan - The Impact of the Highly Improbable”, points out three sources of opacity between the human brain and history (or even our own life experiences).

a. the illusion of understanding …
b. the retrospective distorton … in hindsight, events have been put into their proper context and explanations …
c. the overvaluation of factual information and the handicap of authoritative and learned people.
The more I learn, the more I am firmly convinced that I know almost nothing.

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